Election commission of India has announced the elections for 5 states with the below schedule.
As one can see, 3 of the 5 states is currently ruled by the BJP, and main opposition party is the Congress in these states. In Chattisgarh, Ajit Jogis regional party has some presence, but in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan it is direct contest between the two national parties. In Telangana it is primarily contest between the regional party TRS vs Congress + TDP alliance with BJP being a marginal player. When one read Congress + TDP alliance - this was unthinkable earlier this year, but the hatred for TDP against Modi has made the arch rivals TDP and Congress combine to fight against TRS who seems to be inclined more toward BJP. In Mizoram - it is Congress against the regional parties, with BJP again being more fringe player.
Let us look at in detail the early trends in 4 of 5 states (not much data is available of Mizoram), and its possible impact on the 2019 General election.
Madhya Pradesh
Assembly Strength - 230 seats
BJP is ruling in this state since they won this state in 2013 December. So as such there will be strong anti-incumbency against BJP although CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan continues to be most popular CM candidate, with no clear CM candidate from the opposition Congress. Congress has been a divided house here, and BSP was pushing for a alliance which broke with Mayawati announcing the break-up last week.
Current trends show it is going to be close content with slight edge to Congress. As per latest ABP - C-Voter analysis for Madhya Pradesh. Congress projected vote percentage is 42.2 vs for BJP 41.5.
So difference is less than 1% - and with BJP having strong Organization backed by strong RSS, Amit Shah strategies, and Modi rallies, this difference can bewi turned around easily in the coming weeks. Added to this is divided house of Congress in Madhya Pradesh with some many groups led by Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia etc. I feel BJP will still win Madhya Pradesh but with lot lesser seats than it had last time around. BJP might probably win this 130-140 seats instead of 160+ seat like in 2014
Rajasthan
Assembly Strength - 200 seats
This state has been alternating between BJP and Congres from 1998 onward, and this trend seems to be continue this time around, with heavy anti-incumbency against BJP CM Vasudndhra Raje. Here anti-incumbency seems to be more against BJP CM, than against the party. Also BJP is more divided house here with both RSS and Central leadership not completely behind Vasudndhra Raje.
So the ABP - C-Voter analysis on Rajasthan seems to be confirming this trend and predicting around 50% vote share for Congress and 35% for BJP. This should result massive victory for Congress in Rajasthan
Chhattisgarh
Assembly Strength - 90 seats
BJP has been winning this stage since it was formed in 2003, and like in Madhya Pradesh there seems to be anti-incumbency against BJP despite the popularity of the CM Raman Singh.
Last two elections too it has been a close contest with Vote Share % gap between BJP and Congress being 1%. This time too it will be close contest with Opinion polls predicting Congress having 1% vote share advantage over BJP. The election in this state will be too close to call - because of presence of another marginal regional player in Ajit Jogi. So the swings will be unpredictable and Seat Share prediction based on Vote share will be difficult task.
I feel like like in Madhya Pradesh, Popular CM Raman Singh aided by BJP Organization + RSS + Central leadership + Modi rallies should turn the tide and make BJP win here.
Telangana
Assembly Strength - 119 Seats
Current ruling party - TRS headed by CM K Chandrashekar Rao called for early election as they did not wanted to combine this with General election in 2019. Till couple of months back this strategy seemed right with no strong opposition in sight. But now tide seems to be turning with arch rivals Congress and TDP combining along with CPI(M). Now the contest is becoming close one. TRS might still be able to win this one but with reduced margin. Currently TRS holds 90 seats and this might come down to 60+ seats. BJP is a fringe player in state, but probably can transfer their votes to TRS to ensure the Congress does not come back to power. Cadre based party like BJP is capable of doing it
Summary
Based on current opinion poll trends it could be 3 for Congress and 1 for Regional party. This will be disastrous result for BJP, although Latest General election opinion polls are indicating that people are going to vote differently for the 2019 elections with BJP considerably well in these states. But the impact of loosing these states will be felt in in alliances.
Imagine BJP loose all 3 states,
| States | Current Ruling Party | Election Dates | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chhattisgarh | BJP | November 12, November 20 | December 11 |
| Madhya Pradesh | BJP | November 28 | December 11 |
| Mizoram | Congress | November 28 | December 11 |
| Rajasthan | BJP | December 7 | December 11 |
| Telangana | TRS | December 7 | December 11 |
As one can see, 3 of the 5 states is currently ruled by the BJP, and main opposition party is the Congress in these states. In Chattisgarh, Ajit Jogis regional party has some presence, but in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan it is direct contest between the two national parties. In Telangana it is primarily contest between the regional party TRS vs Congress + TDP alliance with BJP being a marginal player. When one read Congress + TDP alliance - this was unthinkable earlier this year, but the hatred for TDP against Modi has made the arch rivals TDP and Congress combine to fight against TRS who seems to be inclined more toward BJP. In Mizoram - it is Congress against the regional parties, with BJP again being more fringe player.
Let us look at in detail the early trends in 4 of 5 states (not much data is available of Mizoram), and its possible impact on the 2019 General election.
Madhya Pradesh
Assembly Strength - 230 seats
BJP is ruling in this state since they won this state in 2013 December. So as such there will be strong anti-incumbency against BJP although CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan continues to be most popular CM candidate, with no clear CM candidate from the opposition Congress. Congress has been a divided house here, and BSP was pushing for a alliance which broke with Mayawati announcing the break-up last week.
Current trends show it is going to be close content with slight edge to Congress. As per latest ABP - C-Voter analysis for Madhya Pradesh. Congress projected vote percentage is 42.2 vs for BJP 41.5.
So difference is less than 1% - and with BJP having strong Organization backed by strong RSS, Amit Shah strategies, and Modi rallies, this difference can bewi turned around easily in the coming weeks. Added to this is divided house of Congress in Madhya Pradesh with some many groups led by Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia etc. I feel BJP will still win Madhya Pradesh but with lot lesser seats than it had last time around. BJP might probably win this 130-140 seats instead of 160+ seat like in 2014
Rajasthan
Assembly Strength - 200 seats
This state has been alternating between BJP and Congres from 1998 onward, and this trend seems to be continue this time around, with heavy anti-incumbency against BJP CM Vasudndhra Raje. Here anti-incumbency seems to be more against BJP CM, than against the party. Also BJP is more divided house here with both RSS and Central leadership not completely behind Vasudndhra Raje.
So the ABP - C-Voter analysis on Rajasthan seems to be confirming this trend and predicting around 50% vote share for Congress and 35% for BJP. This should result massive victory for Congress in Rajasthan
Chhattisgarh
Assembly Strength - 90 seats
BJP has been winning this stage since it was formed in 2003, and like in Madhya Pradesh there seems to be anti-incumbency against BJP despite the popularity of the CM Raman Singh.
Last two elections too it has been a close contest with Vote Share % gap between BJP and Congress being 1%. This time too it will be close contest with Opinion polls predicting Congress having 1% vote share advantage over BJP. The election in this state will be too close to call - because of presence of another marginal regional player in Ajit Jogi. So the swings will be unpredictable and Seat Share prediction based on Vote share will be difficult task.
I feel like like in Madhya Pradesh, Popular CM Raman Singh aided by BJP Organization + RSS + Central leadership + Modi rallies should turn the tide and make BJP win here.
Telangana
Assembly Strength - 119 Seats
Current ruling party - TRS headed by CM K Chandrashekar Rao called for early election as they did not wanted to combine this with General election in 2019. Till couple of months back this strategy seemed right with no strong opposition in sight. But now tide seems to be turning with arch rivals Congress and TDP combining along with CPI(M). Now the contest is becoming close one. TRS might still be able to win this one but with reduced margin. Currently TRS holds 90 seats and this might come down to 60+ seats. BJP is a fringe player in state, but probably can transfer their votes to TRS to ensure the Congress does not come back to power. Cadre based party like BJP is capable of doing it
Summary
Based on current opinion poll trends it could be 3 for Congress and 1 for Regional party. This will be disastrous result for BJP, although Latest General election opinion polls are indicating that people are going to vote differently for the 2019 elections with BJP considerably well in these states. But the impact of loosing these states will be felt in in alliances.
Imagine BJP loose all 3 states,
- In UP - BSP, SP will get Congress on board who them they are distancing as of now
- Bihar - Ram vilas Paswan will shift to RJD + Congress combine and this will have large impact on the seats
- Maharashtra - NCP + Congress alliance will become stronger, and Friend / Enemy Shiva Sena will definitely either go solo or even combine with NCP+Congress alliance
- Andhra Pradesh - TDP will align with Congress and this means UPA will become more stronger
Imagine if BJP retains at-least 2 of the 3 States,
- In UP - SP, BSP will definitely not get Congress on board
- Bihar - current alliances will remain intact
- Maharashtra - NCP might rethink on alliance with Congress, and Shiva Sena might rethink about its decision to go solo
- Andra - TDP will rethink about its decision for alliance with Congress
So the results have larger impact of possible alliances for General election and in turn will have a significant impact of number of seats NDA, UPA will possibly win in 2019 General Elections. So expect Narendra Modi + Amit Shah to work hard as they did in Karnataka to turn current tide and win at-least 2 (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh) of the 3 states in the coming assembly elections to retain their bargaining power with the allies.
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