So as we looked the 5 regions in summary, this what the trends are indicating at this stage, for two major parties / alliances,
  • South
    • BJP has already lost one alliance in TDP, and expected to win seats only from Karnataka
    • In Tamil Nadu - the winning alliance is going to be DMK, and it is going with Congress at this stage
    • In Kerala - Congress led alliance is expected to do well
    • In Andhra - if there is no alliance between TDP and Congress, then regional party YSRC is expected to do well
    • Similarly in Telangana, it is expected that regional party TRS will do well.  Congress will also gain based on alliance with TDP
    • So in net, BJP will mostly remain in number of seats / slight reduction. Congress / UPA is expected to gain big in this region
  • Northeast
    • BJP is expected to gain significantly in this region, but the region is very small one with 25 Seats. Hence the gains they make here, will not offset much the losses they are expected to suffer in other regions
  • East
    • BJP is expected to make significant gains in this region specifically in West Bengal and Odisha
    • BJP is expected to suffer some reverses in Jharkhand
    • Overall Congress / UPA will not make much gains in this region, BJP / NDA is expected to make some significant gains, but overall - these gains might not be sufficient to offset the losses it is expected to suffer in West and North regions
  • West
    • BJP had peaked in this region in 2014, and in one of the key state Maharashtra - there is no clarity at this stage on alliance with Shiva Sena
    • So that this BJP / NDA is expected to loose significant number of seats in this region specifically in Maharashtra and Rajasthan
  • North
    • Like in Western region, BJP had peaked in this region in 2014. One of the main factors for that was they had swept the largest state Uttar Pradesh
    • This time in Uttar Pradesh, BJP is expected to face strong MGB comprising BSP + SP + RLD and may be Congress
    • The losses they suffer in UP is going to be bring down their number significant overall, despite continued good showing in other smaller states in this region
    • Overall the net gains will be Others in this region as officially at this stage BSP, SP are not part of Congress led UPA
So overall, at this stage BJP / NDA number are going to come down from 2014, Congress led UPA is going to go up. But the both coming down in number for BJP and going up in number for UPA may not change who will continue to rule at the center. It is expected that BJP / NDA will continue to lead the government, but much weaker Modi + Shah combination will be at the helm because BJP will not have a majority on their own. This would also mean, alliances will be seeking much higher stake in the government. So we have interesting times on our hand.