In total Norther part (including the Central part) of India accounts for 166 seats from states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu Kashmir, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Union Territory Chandigarh.
In 2014, like in Western part - BJP / NDA had swept most of these states, and had significantly contributed to big and comfortable victory in 2014.
In 2019, BJP/NDA are bound to lose significant number of seats in these states - specifically in UP. hence would be working hard to contain loses in these states.
Let us analyze these states in detail.
Madhya Pradesh
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 29
This has been one of the states where it is direct contest between two national parties, and BJP has been doing very well in this state for last few general election, except in 2009 where their number of seats had gone down to 16. This time around too despite ant-incumbency at the state level, they are expected to do well and win 20+ seats.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 29
BJP - 20 to 24
Congress - 5 to 9
Chattisgarh
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 11
Since its formation in 2003, BJP has been doing well in this state winning majority of the seats in this state. This time around too, despite the anti-incumbency at the state level, it is expected that BJP will do well to win maximum seats in this state.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 11
BJP - 8 to 10
Congress - 2 to 3
Punjab
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 13
Till 2014, it was a two party system in this state with Congress against Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) + BJP alliance. In 2014 things got changed with emergency of Aam Adami Party (AAP). All the 3 parties / alliances won almost equal number of seats. But it was a very credible performance from AAP contesting the election in Punjab for first time. This also led people predicting possibilities of AAP winning the Punjab assembly election in 2017. But that did not happen, and Congress got the benefits of strong anti-incumbency against SAD and presence of strong Congress lead Captain Amarinder Singh.
In 2019 elections, trend seems to indicate - there is a continuation of anti-incumbency against SAD, and further down slide for AAP resulting in Congress sweeping the state. This will perhaps be the only state in India, where Congress is expected to finish number one in seat tally and also most probably expected to sweep the state.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 13
NDA (SAD + BJP) - 0 to 2
Congress - 10 to 13
AAP - 0 to 2
Haryana
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 10
In 2014 elections, BJP had finished as the number one party and this then had resulted in BJP winning the Assembly election held few months later. This time around, the anti-incumbency against the BJP locally might impact the number of seats they are going to win, but still they will probably win maximum number of seats. This is one state where the regional party INLD is also very strong, hence it will be close contest between the 3 parties, and will be one of the states where it is difficult to predict the results.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 10
BJP - 5 to 7
Congress - 2 o 3
INLD - 3 to 5
Uttrakhand
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 5
In 2009, in this hill state Congress had swept this state winning all 5 seats, and BJP repeated the feat in 2014 election. Currently there seems to be no visible anti-incumbency against BJP, hence it is expected to retain all their 5 seats
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 5
BJP- 5
Congress - 5
Himachal Pradesh
Delhi
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 7
In 2014, AAP had emerged on the scene and since then it is 3 party race in Delhi. AAP had emerged more by eating into the Congress votes. In 2014, BJP had swept the state, and AAP was in second place in the all the seats. In 2019 seems like BJP will continue to retain their lead, but Congress seems to be gaining back its votes it had lost out to AAP.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 7
BJP- 5 to 7
Congress - 0 to 2
AAP - 0 to 2
Uttar Pradesh
Total number of Parliamentary seats -80
In 2014, BJP had swept the state wining 73 of 80 seats, and was of the biggest factor in BJP on its own reaching the majority mark. Then 2017, BJP repeated this performance in assembly elections to show that this was not a fluke result.
This overwhelming performance of BJP has resulted in the sworn enemies SP and BSP coming together for a possible alliance along with other smaller regional players like RLD. This will be a formidable combination and will effect the BJP performance significantly. If this alliance also adds Congress to its fold, then they are expected to sweep the state like how BJP did in 2014. This is purely based on electorate caste arithmetic. However we still do not know what does Amit Shah + Narendra Modi still have in their bag of tricks to fight this formidable alliance.
Based on the alliance arithmetic - currently below is what all the pollsters are indicating on the possible results,
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 80
BJP- 15 to 20
SP + BSP + RLD + Congress - 60 to 65
Summary
As one can see BJP is expected to retain or loose only few seats in all the states except Uttar Pradesh. In Uttar Pradesh they are expected to loose in big number if there is a formidable alliance, and this will bring down the BJP numbers significantly and will not have a majority on their own.
The alliance victory will further complicate the matter for Congress as to who will the lead the opposition alliance.
In 2014, like in Western part - BJP / NDA had swept most of these states, and had significantly contributed to big and comfortable victory in 2014.
In 2019, BJP/NDA are bound to lose significant number of seats in these states - specifically in UP. hence would be working hard to contain loses in these states.
Let us analyze these states in detail.
Madhya Pradesh
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 29
This has been one of the states where it is direct contest between two national parties, and BJP has been doing very well in this state for last few general election, except in 2009 where their number of seats had gone down to 16. This time around too despite ant-incumbency at the state level, they are expected to do well and win 20+ seats.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 29
BJP - 20 to 24
Congress - 5 to 9
Chattisgarh
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 11
Since its formation in 2003, BJP has been doing well in this state winning majority of the seats in this state. This time around too, despite the anti-incumbency at the state level, it is expected that BJP will do well to win maximum seats in this state.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 11
BJP - 8 to 10
Congress - 2 to 3
Punjab
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 13
Till 2014, it was a two party system in this state with Congress against Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) + BJP alliance. In 2014 things got changed with emergency of Aam Adami Party (AAP). All the 3 parties / alliances won almost equal number of seats. But it was a very credible performance from AAP contesting the election in Punjab for first time. This also led people predicting possibilities of AAP winning the Punjab assembly election in 2017. But that did not happen, and Congress got the benefits of strong anti-incumbency against SAD and presence of strong Congress lead Captain Amarinder Singh.
In 2019 elections, trend seems to indicate - there is a continuation of anti-incumbency against SAD, and further down slide for AAP resulting in Congress sweeping the state. This will perhaps be the only state in India, where Congress is expected to finish number one in seat tally and also most probably expected to sweep the state.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 13
NDA (SAD + BJP) - 0 to 2
Congress - 10 to 13
AAP - 0 to 2
Haryana
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 10
In 2014 elections, BJP had finished as the number one party and this then had resulted in BJP winning the Assembly election held few months later. This time around, the anti-incumbency against the BJP locally might impact the number of seats they are going to win, but still they will probably win maximum number of seats. This is one state where the regional party INLD is also very strong, hence it will be close contest between the 3 parties, and will be one of the states where it is difficult to predict the results.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 10
BJP - 5 to 7
Congress - 2 o 3
INLD - 3 to 5
Uttrakhand
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 5
In 2009, in this hill state Congress had swept this state winning all 5 seats, and BJP repeated the feat in 2014 election. Currently there seems to be no visible anti-incumbency against BJP, hence it is expected to retain all their 5 seats
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 5
BJP- 5
Congress - 5
Himachal Pradesh
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 4
In this another hill state, in 2014 BJP had swept and won all the 4 seats. This time around too it is expected the BJP will repeat this performance.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 4
BJP- 4
Congress - 0
Total seats - 4
BJP- 4
Congress - 0
Jammu Kashmir
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 6
In this another hill state, BJP had swept in Jammu region and other parties like NC, Congress, PDP like won in the seats in Kashmir. This time around there seems to be anti-incumbency against both BJP and PDP, and seems like NC + Congress possible alliance might sweep the state
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 6
BJP- 0 to 2
NC + Congress - 4 to 6
PDP - 0 to 1
Total seats - 6
BJP- 0 to 2
NC + Congress - 4 to 6
PDP - 0 to 1
Delhi
Total number of Parliamentary seats - 7
In 2014, AAP had emerged on the scene and since then it is 3 party race in Delhi. AAP had emerged more by eating into the Congress votes. In 2014, BJP had swept the state, and AAP was in second place in the all the seats. In 2019 seems like BJP will continue to retain their lead, but Congress seems to be gaining back its votes it had lost out to AAP.
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 7
BJP- 5 to 7
Congress - 0 to 2
AAP - 0 to 2
Uttar Pradesh
Total number of Parliamentary seats -80
In 2014, BJP had swept the state wining 73 of 80 seats, and was of the biggest factor in BJP on its own reaching the majority mark. Then 2017, BJP repeated this performance in assembly elections to show that this was not a fluke result.
This overwhelming performance of BJP has resulted in the sworn enemies SP and BSP coming together for a possible alliance along with other smaller regional players like RLD. This will be a formidable combination and will effect the BJP performance significantly. If this alliance also adds Congress to its fold, then they are expected to sweep the state like how BJP did in 2014. This is purely based on electorate caste arithmetic. However we still do not know what does Amit Shah + Narendra Modi still have in their bag of tricks to fight this formidable alliance.
Based on the alliance arithmetic - currently below is what all the pollsters are indicating on the possible results,
Indicative Seat tally,
Total seats - 80
BJP- 15 to 20
SP + BSP + RLD + Congress - 60 to 65
Summary
As one can see BJP is expected to retain or loose only few seats in all the states except Uttar Pradesh. In Uttar Pradesh they are expected to loose in big number if there is a formidable alliance, and this will bring down the BJP numbers significantly and will not have a majority on their own.
The alliance victory will further complicate the matter for Congress as to who will the lead the opposition alliance.
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